Consumer Behavior Monitor: concerns come and go

Spring has officially begun, and it seems that the Dutch want to put the recent period of cold and dark days behind them—and with it, the worries of that time. But are those worries really disappearing? That’s not what we’re seeing in the Consumer Behavior Monitor, an initiative of VU Amsterdam and Validators. Rather, it seems that other concerns are taking their place. In this article, you’ll learn what crises are on the minds of the Dutch and what they consider important in brand communications.

Goodbye, winter!

It seems that the Dutch are putting their thick sweaters back in the closet en masse and skipping streaming services a bit more often. Instead, they’d rather spend more money and time buying a new summer outfit or booking that summer vacation they’ve been eagerly looking forward to. We’re seeing that spending on fashion (such as clothing and shoes), after a downward trend this year, is now creeping back up (38% total, +5% compared to Week 10), while spending on streaming services is actually declining again (34%, -5% compared to Week 8). Spending on air travel has also grown from 4% to 7% since week 4. Goodbye, winter!

After the rain comes the sunshine?

And as we start thinking about spring, the topic of Ukraine suddenly seems a little less pressing. In week 12, concerns about the war in Ukraine dropped by 10 percentage points (from 57% in week 10 to 47% in week 12). Concerns about rising energy prices have also eased somewhat (from 67% in week 10 to 63% in week 12). Concerns about the war in Ukraine are thus receding slightly into the background, and it seems everyone has grown somewhat accustomed to concerns about rising prices. This means the two biggest concerns of recent weeks have found their place. But does this mean the concerns are over? No, it simply means space is being created for new concerns.

Out of the frying pan into the fire

As a result, concerns about the housing market are rising again. 44% of the Dutch population is concerned about the housing crisis (+7% compared to Week 10). And while the climate crisis seemed to have been temporarily forgotten during the provincial elections, those concerns have also risen again since the elections (+6% compared to week 10). Then the NOS broke the news about Credit Suisse. While European financial institutions assure us that we’re in good shape, there’s no denying that there are some parallels with 2008. Should we brace ourselves again? Concerns about the job market are certainly present. A quarter of the Dutch population (24%) is very concerned about the crisis in the job market. Of this group, a quarter (25%) are afraid they won’t be able to find a new job. On the other hand, concerns about the health effects of stress (-11% compared to week 8) and concerns about excessive work pressure are actually decreasing (-25% compared to week 8).

In short, it’s nice to have spring back. But whether the Netherlands is fully ready for spring fever remains to be seen.

Daan Muntinga, strategy director at Mensch: “Sunlight puts your mind at ease. It makes people happier, more romantic, and more generous, but it also influences your spending habits.” Scientists found a robust positive causal link between sunlight and spending. And that doesn’t just apply to FMCG goods like Italian ice cream and cold beer: the ‘sunlight effect’ also holds true for durable goods. Other scientists, in turn, demonstrated that this causal link was mediated by negative affect—negative feelings. As exposure to sunlight increases, negative feelings decrease and spending increases. So the sun chases away the gloom and makes you open your wallet. Charles Aznavour, who passed away in 2018, had known that for a long time, of course. In “Emmenez-moi,” he sang: “il me semble que la misère serait moins pénible au soleil.”

You get what you give

Issues such as health (51%) and sustainability (39%) have been important to consumers for years. But corporate social responsibility has also become increasingly relevant over the past year (25%). Last year, this was relevant to only 17% of consumers. It is no coincidence that this increase coincides with the sharp rise in product prices and growing consumer awareness of the need to use gas and energy more efficiently. With this, consumers seem to be saying, “We understand that prices are rising and that we need to be more efficient. But what are you actually doing?” Consumers have done their part recently, but they expect companies to do more and more as well.

Marcel van Brenk, partner at EY VODW:

“More than ever, consumers are facing a high degree of uncertainty, and this is influencing their behavior. They are making more conscious choices, paying closer attention to quality, and are more responsive to promotions. This provides ample opportunities for brands, particularly when it comes to sales promotion strategies, where we see in our practice that there is a significant need for further rationalization based on data.’

This article is also available on MarketingTribune.

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