Who will win the Golden Loeki? Validators know who the front-runner is

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The nominations have been announced, the excitement is building, but which commercials really have the best chance of winning? As is tradition, Validators has already analyzed which nominated spot is the frontrunner ahead of the official results.

Validators achieved this by combining the insights from two unique tools. ValueFlow™ shows where a commercial peaks or dips emotionally, while StoryFlow™ reveals the underlying feelings and reactions. Through natural AI conversations, it becomes clear which scenes resonate, what sentiment prevails at different moments, and why some scenes are moving while others are not. This reveals exactly where a commercial’s strength lies, which moments have the greatest impact, and what makes a spot stick. This not only yields rich insights but also a precise prediction of the winner.

HEMA ranks highest

In the HEMA commercial, a sick girl lies alone in the hospital, while Takkie and Siepie try to make her Christmas wish come true: snow. With an average ValueFlow™ score of 35%, the ad is already performing strongly, but HEMA really shows its true strength when the commercial is viewed multiple times. With a score of 68% upon repeated viewings, the commercial peaks higher than any other.

The combination of ValueFlow™ and StoryFlow™ reveals how that appreciation develops. In the opening scenes, negative sentiment is still evident, but here that actually works to the commercial’s advantage. Viewers empathize with the girl and feel compassion for her, which deepens their emotional engagement. As one respondent put it: “The sick girl in bed. I find it so sad to see her all alone in the hospital.” After that, the sentiment gradually shifts toward the positive, partly due to the nurse’s care and Takkie and Siepie’s sweet plan to make it snow. The brief suspense surrounding Takkie’s disappearance gives the later resolution extra impact, allowing the commercial to end on a warm and moving note. It is precisely this progression from compassion to hope and reward that makes HEMA the top contender for the Golden Loeki.

Kruidvat has the widest selection

In the Kruidvat commercial, a young boy tries to set his mother up with Santa Claus, resulting in a lighthearted Christmas love story. With an average ValueFlow™ score of 38%, this commercial has the highest average score of all the nominees. On first viewing, the impact is still relatively limited, but with repeated viewings, the rating rises sharply to 55%. This shows that the commercial gains strength as the story unfolds.

The strength of the commercial lies in its warm build-up to a feel-good conclusion. ValueFlow™ shows a gradual increase, while StoryFlow™ explains why. The young son’s playful plan grabs the viewer’s attention early on. As one respondent put it: “The son caught my eye. He’s up to something, which caught my attention.” At the same time, the commercial is carried by a sense of togetherness and Christmas spirit: “The family was gathered together in their Christmas pajamas, and it looked cozy.” What stands out most in StoryFlow™ is that the sentiment remains strongly positive throughout the entire commercial. This makes it a distinct feel-good commercial, in which warmth, humor, and romance take center stage. It is precisely this combination of humor, love, and the Christmas spirit that makes Kruidvat widely loved and particularly promising. The big question, then, is whether this consistent feel-good approach will prevail over commercials that rely more on emotional contrast, such as compassion and poignancy.

ING hits the mark right away

ING stands out for scoring well right from the start. In the ING commercial, an elderly woman receives a call from a scammer, but thanks to the app, she immediately realizes something is wrong. With a ValueFlow™ score of 17% on first exposure, this commercial achieves the highest rating of all the nominees. That’s impressive, especially since ING had to do it in just 30 seconds. Upon repeated viewings, the spot continues to perform well at 41%, though the peak is lower than for HEMA and Kruidvat.

The strength of the commercial lies in its combination of relevance, clarity, and humor. ValueFlow™ shows that the rating rises quickly as soon as it becomes clear that the older woman realizes she’s dealing with a scammer. StoryFlow™ shows why that works: viewers appreciate her alertness and smart actions. “This older woman is smart and immediately checked it out when she didn’t trust it,” says one respondent. The use of the app is also highly appreciated: “That app is great and handy. It lets you check if ING is calling you.” The humorous payoff, in which she pretends to drive into a tunnel, then rounds out the commercial. Together, these elements create a short, clear, and remarkably effective commercial.

The Friends Lottery scores highly, but has less broad support

In the VriendenLoterij commercial, a special bond develops between a boy and an older man in the stands at a soccer game. With a 16% score on first exposure, the commercial performs strongly right from the start, while its rating rises to 54% with repeated viewings. At the same time, the average ValueFlow™ score of 29% is lower than that of HEMA and Kruidvat. This shows that while this commercial resonates very strongly with a segment of the audience, it has less broad appeal than the absolute top favorites.

The power of the commercial lies in the way it builds a sense of connection. Viewers are moved by the bond between the boy and the older man. As one respondent beautifully puts it: “From being distant to growing closer and closer. First, they meet with a handshake, then share a beer, and finally embrace.” Experiencing the soccer moment together also contributes greatly to this: “It gave me a warm feeling, especially the scene where they’re sitting together and the crowd is cheering.”

What stands out is the clear dip in the graph around the moment the chair is empty. In this case, that dip doesn’t mean the commercial is less effective; rather, it shows that viewers are emotionally invested. StoryFlow™ shows that this moment evokes fear, as viewers briefly worry that something has happened to the older man. As one respondent put it: “The scene gave me a sense of shock, mainly because you couldn’t see the old man.” It is precisely because that emotional shock hits home that the moment that follows gains even greater impact. As soon as it becomes clear that the older man is still there after all, the rating rises sharply again, and the fear turns to relief. It is precisely this shift from connection to uncertainty and then back to reunion that makes this commercial so emotionally powerful.

The State Lottery is widely appreciated

In the Staatsloterij commercial, a grumpy neighbor goes door-to-door with a misdelivered package, until it turns out the gift was actually meant for him. The Staatsloterij commercial takes a little longer to be fully appreciated. On first viewing, the score remains at 5%, but with repeated viewings, it rises to 40%. This shows that the commercial gains in appreciation the more viewers see it. However, the peak remains lower than for HEMA and Kruidvat.

The power of the commercial lies in its gradual shift from gloom to warmth. At first, the lonely, grumpy man really stands out. As one respondent put it: “I noticed that the man was in a really bad mood—it was actually kind of sad.” Then, sympathy grows thanks to the neighbors’ kindness: “The kindness of the people was really striking.” The climax, in which it becomes clear that this is his destiny, gives the commercial its heartwarming payoff. That’s what makes this ad endearing, human, and widely appreciated. The Staatsloterij is therefore widely appreciated and does what it